Calgary Real Estate & Economic Update

February 17, 2026

Here is your daily snapshot of the economic and housing factors influencing Calgary real estate right now.

Inflation Update

Canada’s annual inflation rate is currently 2.3%, continuing its gradual moderation trend.

Shelter and energy remain key contributors, but overall pricing pressure has stabilized compared to prior peak cycles.

Interest Rate Snapshot

Bank of Canada Overnight Rate: 2.25%
Prime Rate (major banks): 4.45%
Next Bank of Canada Decision: March 26, 2026

Today’s Best Mortgage Rates in Canada

• ≈ 1-Year Fixed: 4.69%
• ≈ 3-Year Fixed: 3.59%
• ≈ 5-Year Fixed: 3.69%
• ≈ 10-Year Fixed: 5.24%
• ≈ 3-Year Variable: 3.45%
• ≈ 5-Year Variable: 3.35%

Before shopping, it is always best to speak with a mortgage broker. They are free to you and can clarify your purchasing power based on your credit profile, income structure, and debt-to-income ratios. If you would like to be connected with one of my trusted mortgage professionals — or simply want to discuss your options first — reach out to me directly at 403‑465‑1133 or noahmiller@royallepage.ca and I’ll point you in the right direction.

Energy Markets

West Texas Intermediate (WTI): ≈ $63 USD per barrel (–8% to –10% year-over-year)
Western Canadian Select (WCS): ≈ $49 USD per barrel (–10% to –12% year-over-year)
WTI–WCS Spread: ≈ $14 USD per barrel

Global demand expectations remain supportive through 2026–2027.

Canadian Energy Stocks (TSX)

• Suncor: ≈ $76 CAD (+31% YoY), dividend ≈ 3.0%
• Canadian Natural Resources: ≈ $55 CAD (+29–30% YoY), dividend ≈ 4.3%
• Cenovus: ≈ $30 CAD (+20–25% YoY), dividend ≈ 2.7%
• Imperial Oil: ≈ $163 CAD (+20–30% YoY), dividend ≈ 1.8%
• TC Energy: ≈ $83 CAD (+30–33% YoY), dividend ≈ 4.4%

Western Canada Rig Count

Active rigs: ≈ 153
Year-over-year change: –13% to –14%

Agricultural Snapshot – Key Alberta Commodities

Canola: ≈ $14.00–$14.50 CAD/bushel (–3% to +2% YoY)
Feed Barley: ≈ $4.90–$5.50 CAD/bushel (–5% to 0%)
Wheat: ≈ $6.70–$6.85 CAD/bushel (–2% to +3%)
Yellow Peas: ≈ $8.50–$8.75 CAD/bushel (0% to +4%)
Oats: ≈ $3.25–$3.75 CAD/bushel (–8% to –3%)
Live Cattle: ≈ $2.40–$2.50 USD/lb (+8% to +15%)
Hogs: ≈ $0.60–$0.72 USD/lb (–5% to +5%)

Calgary Economic & Housing Indicators

Downtown Office Vacancy Rate: ≈ 28–30% (–1% to –3% YoY improvement)

Rental Vacancy Rate: ≈ 4–5% (+150% to +200% YoY increase)

Average Rental Rates:
One-bedroom ≈ $1,700–$1,850 (+3% to +6% YoY)
Two-bedroom ≈ $2,100–$2,300 (+4% to +7% YoY)

Calgary Unemployment Rate: ≈ 6.5–7.0% (–0.5% to –1% YoY improvement)

Population Growth – Calgary

Calgary’s population today is approximately 1,460,800 residents.

Annual growth remains in the 4–6% range, with the city adding approximately 180–200 new residents per day.

Interprovincial migration continues primarily from Ontario (GTA region), British Columbia (Lower Mainland), and Quebec (Montreal region). International immigration remains strong from India, Philippines, China, Nigeria, and Pakistan.

Population growth remains one of the strongest long-term structural supports for housing demand in our city.

Community Profile – Mahogany (SE Calgary)

Mahogany is a master‑planned lake community in southeast Calgary and one of the city’s most sought‑after family neighbourhoods. Development began in 2010 and continues today, offering a mix of detached homes, semi‑detached properties, townhomes, and condominiums with modern architectural styles and strong resale demand.

Schools serving the area include Mahogany School (K–4, public), Divine Mercy School (K–6, Catholic), and nearby Dr. Freda D. Miller School. Junior high and high school students typically attend schools in Auburn Bay or Seton, including Joane Cardinal‑Schubert High School. School infrastructure continues to expand as the community grows.

Retail and amenities are strong. Mahogany Village Market includes Sobeys, restaurants, cafés, medical clinics, and professional services. Minutes away is the Seton Urban District featuring South Health Campus hospital, Cineplex VIP Theatre, major grocery retailers, restaurants, fitness facilities, and professional offices. Residents also benefit from convenient access to 130th Avenue retail and Stoney Trail.

Estimated median household income ranges between $125,000 and $140,000 annually, reflecting a high proportion of dual‑income professional households. The neighbourhood attracts move‑up buyers, young families, and relocating professionals.

Mahogany is located approximately 23 km from downtown Calgary. Driving time averages 25–30 minutes outside peak hours and approximately 35–50 minutes during rush hour depending on Deerfoot Trail traffic conditions.

Greenspace is a defining feature of the community, highlighted by the 63‑acre freshwater lake, over 265 acres of open space, wetlands, playgrounds, athletic fields, and an extensive pathway network. Private lake access remains a major lifestyle differentiator.

Market Summary

Inflation is moderating.
Interest rates are stable.
Mortgage rates remain competitive.
Energy markets are steady.
Population growth is strong.
Employment remains stable.

There are no destabilizing signals in the system right now.

Calgary’s market is balanced — not overheated, not declining. Strategic positioning matters more than speculation.

My Perspective

From what I’m seeing daily in the market:

Serious buyers are active.
Well-priced properties are moving.
Inventory levels are creating healthier negotiating environments.

This is a strategy market.

If you’re considering buying, selling, investing, or simply want clarity on what your home may be worth, let’s connect.

Let’s Connect

Real estate decisions are better when they’re informed and strategic — and that starts with a conversation.

403‑465‑1133
noahmiller@royallepage.ca

No pressure. Just clear information and honest advice.

Noah Miller
Real Estate Professional
Royal LePage Benchmark

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